Oil Prices Slide Amid Trump’s Energy Policies

Oil markets are like a seesaw right now—up one minute, down the next. On Friday, Brent crude edged up 0.3% to $78.54 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed to $74.84. But zoom out for the week, and the picture isn’t so rosy: Brent is down 3%, and WTI has slipped 4%.

What’s behind the turbulence? Enter President Trump , who’s been busy shaking up the energy world. From declaring a national energy emergency to pressuring Saudi Arabia to slash oil prices and boost its U.S. investments to $1 trillion, Trump’s moves are sending ripples through global markets. But here’s the catch: while his policies aim to boost American oil production, they’re also injecting uncertainty—and volatility—into an already jittery market.

Why It Matters: The Forces Driving Oil Prices

1. Cranking Up U.S. Production

Trump’s latest move? Declaring a national energy emergency to maximize domestic oil and gas production. Translation: rolling back environmental regulations on pipelines, drilling, and other energy infrastructure. The goal? Make America the world’s top energy producer again.

But here’s the rub: ramping up production takes time. And in the meantime, the market is left guessing how much new supply will actually hit the scene—and when.

2. Tariffs and Global Demand Fears

It’s not just about supply—demand is under pressure too. Trump’s proposed tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and the EU, along with potential duties on China, have traders worried. Higher tariffs could slow global trade, dent economic growth, and reduce oil demand. For a market already grappling with weak Chinese consumption, that’s a double whammy.

3. OPEC’s Calculated Silence

Despite Trump’s calls for OPEC—especially Saudi Arabia—to lower prices, analysts aren’t holding their breath. OPEC tends to play the long game, and without a major shift in market fundamentals, it’s unlikely they’ll budge. As one expert put it, “OPEC doesn’t dance to Trump’s tune unless it suits their own agenda.”

The Bigger Picture: A Market on Edge

1. Narrow Price Range Ahead

With so much uncertainty swirling around U.S. tariffs, sanctions, and OPEC’s next move, oil prices are stuck in limbo. Traders predict crude will hover between $76.50 and $78 per barrel in the near term. It’s a classic case of “wait and see”—and no one’s making big bets just yet.

2. Falling Inventories vs. Oversupply Worries

On the bright side, U.S. crude stocks fell by 1 million barrels last week , hitting their lowest levels since March 2022. That’s a bullish signal, right? Not so fast. Global oversupply and sluggish demand—especially from China—are keeping prices in check. It’s a tug-of-war between optimism and caution.

The Takeaway: Volatility Reigns Supreme

Trump’s energy policies may be designed to prioritize U.S. production, but they’ve introduced a whole lot of uncertainty into oil markets. His mix of domestic-focused strategies and international demands has left traders walking a tightrope, balancing hope for higher U.S. output against fears of slower global growth.

For now, the market is playing it safe, waiting for clarity on tariffs, sanctions, and OPEC’s next steps. One thing’s for sure: in the world of oil, calm waters are hard to come by—and Trump’s latest moves are stirring up plenty of waves.

Sources & Fact-Check

• Reuters: Reports on oil price movements, including Friday’s uptick and weekly declines for Brent and WTI.

• White House Press Release: Details President Trump’s declaration of a national energy emergency and plans to roll back environmental regulations.

• Energy Information Administration (EIA): Provides data on U.S. crude stock declines and inventory levels.

• OPEC Monthly Report: Analyzes OPEC’s response to global market pressures and skepticism about policy changes amid Trump’s demands.

• Bloomberg Commodities Analysis: Explores the impact of Trump’s tariff proposals on global oil demand and economic growth.

• CNBC Market Insights: Discusses trader predictions for crude oil price ranges and market volatility in the near term.